Perhaps, like me, cricket betting fans occasionally muse about the Duckworth / Lewis duo, imagining them to be roughly a cross between the cricketing encyclopaedia and enthusiast, Jonathan Agnew and that bloke off Channel 4 that did the Test match computer graphics. The kind of guys who would let slip a couple of anecdotes about old Freddie Trueman or a reflection on the fluidity of Peter May. You would be disappointed. Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis are statisticians whose sole terms of reference were cold and clinical, mathematical data from other matches when they invented their method of producing incomprehensible and seemingly outrageously unfair results in cricket matches that routinely crush the dreams of a nation.

Just, What is the Duckworth / Lewis Method ?

Their correctional system comes into play when a match has been interrupted by rain or bad light and a result is needed. It’s a sort of penalty shootout for cricket. The latest apparent outrage occurred this week in the fourth One Day International in India when England, batting second, were required to score more runs than India from the same number of overs. This adjustment was intended to reflect, and compensate for, the mind-set of the Indian batsmen who would have treated their overs less preciously because they didn’t know they were not going to bat for the full fifty. First responses to this might be a feeling that this is a good point but then thoughts turn to how on earth you measure such a thing.

Some Cases For Concern

There was an example of the D/L method in Australia in 1992 where, after a short shower of 12 minutes, Australia were told they had to score 22 runs off one ball! In another instance, India, batting first were all out for 328 in the 49th over. Pakistan went on to score 311 in 47 overs when bad light stopped play. Pakistan were then adjudged, by the D/L calculation, to be the winners by seven runs.

A further criticism is that it’s open to abuse in that the method encourages bad sportsmanship. The D/L method places a higher value on wickets than overs in run-rate calculations. A side, sensing oncoming rain, might decide to go for a low run rate and conserve wickets thus obtaining a more advantageous ‘weighting’ in the final analysis.

There are no perfect solutions to unresolved matches but at least the penalty shoot-out requires skill and nerve from the football players. The D/L approach to resolution takes matters out of the hands of the teams and seems only to leave a vague sense of anticlimax and unfairness in the air.